Seems like OP is really over thinking this process. First, only 60% of exit permits are reservable (15 out of 25); the other 10 are walk-in.
[Note this is exit - all WZ permits entering from/returning to WP are reservation only ie lottery.]
Secondly, having personally done MW from every possible direction/style, I've met more than a few people suffering from some kind of ailment, sickness, etc.
What do they do? Abort their plans and head down of course. (Including one guy who had to be airlifted out of Crabtree meadows.) That includes trips that were planned for exiting via other THs after summiting from the west.
So, take the hint. Not that you'll need it - I have never been shut out walking in trying to get an exit. Also, be flexible on exit dates. No one says you have to stay in the mountains if you happen to arrive a day or two early.
Edited by Hobbes (02/14/19 04:22 PM)