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#37353 - 06/11/14 05:41 PM El Nino - what does it mean for the summer in the Sierra
Fishmonger Offline


Registered: 01/07/10
Posts: 1030
Loc: Madison, WI
The Dweebs are pretty sure we will get a strong or super strong el Nino this year - see the bottom of this forecast from Monday:

http://mammothweather.com/2014/06/09/mon...t-el-nino-soon/

Others seem to think the same and the data supports it

Now, other than those wind gusts, what does the arrival of a strong El Nino mean for summer weather? What was it like during the last super El Nino year in 1997? I wasn't in the Sierra that year, but I bet somebody here was...

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#37355 - 06/11/14 06:16 PM Re: El Nino - what does it mean for the summer in the Sierra [Re: Fishmonger]
SierraNevada Offline


Registered: 09/05/11
Posts: 1139
Loc: NorCal
My understanding of El Nino and Californian weather is that it's a winter effect. Most (but not all) El Nino years have above average winter precip, especially in SoCal. It also makes a Pineapple Express storm more likely, which is one of the ways it pushes up the average. We usually don't drip our way out of a drought, it's common for it to be broken by a big wet winter, so maybe this is it.

I don't think El Nino matters too much for summer, but I could be wrong. It may increase monsoonal moisture, which could result in more Sierra thunderstorms, but that's pure speculation on my part. I've never seen any data correlating El Nino and California summer weather.

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#37366 - 06/12/14 03:49 AM Re: El Nino - what does it mean for the summer in the Sierra [Re: Fishmonger]
Harvey Lankford Offline


Registered: 11/10/09
Posts: 1017
Loc: Richmond, Virginia
Originally Posted By: Fishmonger
What was it like during the last super El Nino year in 1997?

I can tell you what it was like on Aconcagua during that El Nino. I am lucky to be here.

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#37369 - 06/12/14 06:37 AM Re: El Nino - what does it mean for the summer in the Sierra [Re: Harvey Lankford]
Fishmonger Offline


Registered: 01/07/10
Posts: 1030
Loc: Madison, WI
from the historical data I could find so far, June and July 1997 were dry and sunny, at least in Mammoth and Yosemite.

July on Bishop Pass saw normal temps that indicate few storms if any. Late June had a little drop, but nothing unusual.

Very hard to google any info on summer 1997 conditions, indicating that nothing abnormal was happening.

Good. Back to packing and planning.

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#37390 - 06/12/14 09:27 AM Re: El Nino - what does it mean for the summer in the Sierra [Re: Fishmonger]
wbtravis Offline


Registered: 09/22/09
Posts: 1253
Loc: Corner of Jack Benny and Roche...
I lived in Surf City during an El Nino year. I meant being able to go in the ocean into November without a wet suit.

That's summer effect I know.

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#37410 - 06/12/14 06:03 PM Re: El Nino - what does it mean for the summer in the Sierra [Re: wbtravis]
SierraNevada Offline


Registered: 09/05/11
Posts: 1139
Loc: NorCal
Unusual fish appearing in San Diego Similar to 1997 El Nino.

Guardian article says 90% chance of El Nino in 2014 Excellent background info.

Edit:
Changed "Good" background information to
"Excellent" background information.

This article is really informative with a global perspective.


Edited by SierraNevada (06/12/14 06:11 PM)

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