Mt Whitney Zone Forums General Discussion First significant snow/ice of Fall season?

I hope this hasn't been covered too many times already. I am trying to find out when on average is the first significant snow or ice event in the Fall of the year. By significant I mean snow/ice that would create the need for micro spikes or crampons on any part of the trail to Whitney summit. I will be hiking from Tuolumne Meadows and plan to summit Whitney mid/late September. I like to prepare for the worst conditions likely. I know Sept. is early for lasting snow but would like to hear some worse case scenarios as they have happened. (My wife thinks I'm just fishing for an excuse to buy crampons).
Thanks in advance for any info!

I would not haul crampons all the way from Yosemite in the off chance that you will hit snow in late September.

While snow can hit any month of the year, the first storm of fall often comes about the first of October. But if you get even six inches of snow, you can tramp your way through, even without crampons. The switchbacks would still be passable.

I wouldn't drag stuff either but I would be prepared to bailout at a moments notice over passes east or west.

People have died with just a bit of snow in September and October descending from Trail Crest...usually trying to glissade with trekking poles as a brake.

have a look at a thread I started over on HST - it's about the first significant snow, but more or less the same idea.

I created the graph below from the data I was able to find. No significant snow in September, so this focuses on October. Average first significant snowfall day is Oct. 17, and that includes the range all the way north to Tahoe.



I am planning a late Sept, early Oct John Muir Trail route this fall, and I am mostly worried about the big snow. Ice and light snow won't slow me down, as I am definitely bringing crampons along as where I am headed, not having the right gear for worst case scenario can get you in real trouble, days away from a trailhead.

Based on the historic data I have found, the chance I may have to use them even in early October is going to be at best 50%

NICE graph, Fishmonger! That explains it far better than anything else could.

one thing the data does not capture is snow at higher elevations than 10,000 feet. The stations that record data in Mammoth and other places are all much lower than Whitney. That said, it is unlikely to have a major snow event on Whitney above 11,000 feet and not register snow at the locations the data I used is collected. It just will stick around longer on Whitney, so there's a good chance for some crud to build up and remain on the trail at Trail Crest and above that doesn't derive from major storms. None of that will be of the category of snow event that will have you postholing for miles, though.

That crud is what I am considering more than postholing. As others have mentioned I don't want to lug crampons from TM but if there is even a 20% chance that I may need them I will either carry or send them in my final resupply.
Thanks so much for sharing your info and that fine graph Fishmonger!