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#52431 - 11/15/17 02:15 PM Winter 2017-2018 forecast
Bob West Offline


Registered: 11/13/09
Posts: 780
Loc: Bishop, CA, USA
A couple of weeks ago I attended a weather lecture at the White Mountain Research Center in Bishop. The talk was given by a scientist from the Reno NOAA office.

He said that the NOAA winter prediction for this coming winter is "leaning toward" (those were his words) an average to slightly above average snow fall for the Sierras.

What was mildly surprising is that the best weather forecasts are only good out to about 3 - 5 days, and even then, conditions sometime change without notice. In spite of the best current technology that is the best they can do. The speaker said that in about ten years, as technology improves, the NOAA might be about to produce a reasonable forecast out to about ten days.

So...the lesson to back country travelers is: BE PREPARED!



Edited by Bob West (11/15/17 02:17 PM)

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#52432 - 11/15/17 02:42 PM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: Bob West]
Steve C Offline


Registered: 09/22/09
Posts: 7235
Loc: Fresno, CA
Thanks Bob! Seeing the completely obscured views in the web cams today, I checked the Doppler Radar map for Lone Pine on the Weather page. Today, it is snowing from Kings Canyon (about Kearsarge Pass) northward.

I guess we will see when the clouds clear how accurate the radar is. smile

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#52433 - 11/15/17 03:52 PM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: Steve C]
+ @ti2d Offline


Registered: 10/22/09
Posts: 805
Loc: Oh Cursed, USA
If the rock is wet, it's raining.
If the rock is swinging, the wind is blowing.
If the rock casts a shadow, the sun is shining.
If the rock does not cast a shadow and is not wet, the sky is cloudy.
If the rock is difficult to see, it is foggy.
If the rock is white, it is snowing.
If the rock is coated with ice, there is a frost.
If the ice is thick, it's a heavy frost.
If the rock is bouncing, there is an earthquake.
If the rock is under water, there is a flood.
If the rock is warm, it is sunny.
If the rock is bouncing, it is an earthquake.
If the rock is missing, there was a tornado.
If the rock is wet and swinging violently, there is a hurricane.
If the rock can be felt but not seen, it is night time.
If the rock has white splats on it, watch out for birds.
Please do not disturb the weather rock, it is a finely tuned instrument!
_________________________
Have fun and enjoy the Gr8 Yd Opn.

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#52434 - 11/15/17 06:38 PM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: + @ti2d]
WanderingJim Offline


Registered: 02/09/15
Posts: 186
Loc: California
And:

If the rock is at 14,508 feet, you are very, very tired but don't care because you made it to the top! (Or you don't care because you don't have enough oxygen getting to your brain to realize you should care.) smile

If the rock is at 14,508 feet and is flashing, then get the hell off the summit before you become a lightning rod!!



P.S. you had earthquake in there twice. smile

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#52437 - 11/16/17 06:44 AM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: + @ti2d]
Bob West Offline


Registered: 11/13/09
Posts: 780
Loc: Bishop, CA, USA
A local Paiute elder, known for his knowledge of nature and local weather, was asked by a white man, "Grandfather, what will the weather be this winter?" He replied, "The signs say that it will be a very cold and snowy winter." The white man then asked, "How do you know that, Grandfather." The ancient and wise elder replied, "I see white men bringing home fire wood..."

Local (Owens Valley) people often can be very opinionated (and misinformed) regarding weather, especially if their business relies on attracting skiers to Mammoth Mountain, but your weather rock forecaster is probably as good as it gets.

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#52438 - 11/16/17 07:42 AM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: WanderingJim]
+ @ti2d Offline


Registered: 10/22/09
Posts: 805
Loc: Oh Cursed, USA
Originally Posted By: WanderingJim
P.S. you had earthquake in there twice. smile


Dang, and I cannot edit...

Oh well, one is a foreshock and the other is an aftershock...

And then there is if the rope is gone, wildfire.

How's that for positive attitude!
_________________________
Have fun and enjoy the Gr8 Yd Opn.

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#52448 - 11/16/17 06:39 PM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: Bob West]
saltydog Online


Registered: 02/03/11
Posts: 1550
Loc: Valley Ford CA!!!!
Thought Bob's punchline was gonna be: "Winter: Snow. Cold. Duh."


Edited by saltydog (11/17/17 03:49 PM)
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Wherever you go, there you are.
SPOTMe!

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#52455 - 11/18/17 06:07 PM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: saltydog]
SierraNevada Offline


Registered: 09/05/11
Posts: 1100
Loc: NorCal
Today's satellite launch will improve forecasts out to 7 days with the latest sensors and cameras. More new satellites going up in the near future.

Polar Satellite Launch Nov 18

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#52456 - 11/19/17 07:06 AM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: SierraNevada]
Bob West Offline


Registered: 11/13/09
Posts: 780
Loc: Bishop, CA, USA
A polar orbit does provide a better coverage than equatorial orbits. From Vandenberg AFB, polar orbits are achieved by first launching out over the Pacific Ocean and then doing a "dog-leg" turn to the right into a 88 degree inclination (90 degrees would place the satellite's orbit directly over the poles. The inclination is calculated to provide the coverage required by the mission.) The turn is done so that the rocket does not fly directly over Locpoc, California!

Polar orbits are still used by some "spy" satellites in order to provide good coverage. The JPSS orbit is probably high enough to prevent atmospheric friction, which would eventually decay the orbit into reentry. Synchronous orbits (the ones that seem to hover over a particular spot on the earth) are launched from the Cape and go into high altitude orbits. The Vela satellites, for instance, were parked in synchronous orbits for detecting nuclear explosions in the atmosphere.

Most weather radar is still provided by ground stations, but have gaps in the coverage due to not having enough ground radar stations.

Here is the JPSS website:

http://www.jpss.noaa.gov/




Edited by Bob West (11/19/17 07:27 AM)

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#52458 - 11/19/17 09:29 PM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: Bob West]
SierraNevada Offline


Registered: 09/05/11
Posts: 1100
Loc: NorCal
La Nina is likely this winter, increasing odds for wetter Northwest and drier/warmer Southern US. These are scientific trends, based on past performance - more predictable than the stock market because human emotions are assumed not to apply. Perhaps hopes and prayers actually affect the climate, but NOAA doesn't include that - just the science.

Summary of NOAA winter prediction 2017-18

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#52459 - 11/20/17 04:29 PM Re: Winter 2017-2018 forecast [Re: SierraNevada]
Harvey Lankford Offline


Registered: 11/10/09
Posts: 989
Loc: Richmond, Virginia
Originally Posted By: SierraNevada
Perhaps hopes and prayers actually affect the climate, but NOAA doesn't include that - just the science.

ahh, but scientists' interpretations within the objective data is necessarily subjective to some extent. This next quote is vaguely related:

The learned scientists explained with bland assurance that such vagaries [in barometric readings] were to be expected, and were accounted for quite simply by the presence of a ‘column of cold air.’ The unlearned oafs on the contrary thought it must be something to do with ‘hot air’, and plenty of it.

HW Tilman, The Ascent of Nanda Devi
*Tilman was notoriously part of the anti-science crowd. The understanding of atmospheric conditions and capability of weather forecasting has improved exponentially since then.

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