I was up to 12,900' Saturday. There isn't a lot snow around...less than I thought there would be.
Everyone here is offering there best estimates based on history and/or recent experiences in the Sierra. With that said, none us can know anyone else's comfort level in certain circumstances.
Personally, I never did what a lot early seasons newbies do every year; that is, climb the chute with zero experience with rented crampons and ice axe. I have less cajones than brains.
Do I think it will be a trail? No, there will be beaten path into the snow and ice. It's ain't going to be summer on those switchbacks for a while longer. The cables always has ice/snow, its just a matter of how much.
I want NO part of the chute. My team will accept snow and ice as long as there isn't a huge chance that a misstep equals death.
And if there was ever a "best guess" I wanted to pin my hopes and dreams on, it would be BobR's.
So I'm just waiting for the herd to make the shift to the switchbacks and start posting about it.......................................DUG
