My opinion is similar to Steve's. The exception being the availability of backpacking/overnight permits. There are not a lot but they are available. Whenever I have asked for one they have been available. They are same day permits, which get you on the trail later than you might like.
I've never have played the daily lottery game, so I can't comment on your chances in that contest.
With all that same, you should come to Lone Pine with a solid Plan B.
