In 2005 and 2006 we went over Cottonwood Pass the same weekend in mid-June. Even though winter of 2006 had more snow, the pass was virtually snow free in 2006. In 2005, we had use axes to get over the pass, climb through snow to climb out of the Chicken Spring Lake area and cross numerous snowfields on our way to Cirque Peak. In 2006, the pass was clear, the climb out was clear and no snowfields.
Every year is different and a lot of factors go into what is left on the north walls and slopes in this time period. If you have a permit into mid-July in an El Nino year, you should be prepared in some way shape or form for what could remain of winter.
Heck, I've already push back a Waterwheel Falls trip to mid-July to insure Tioga Road is open and there is parking available in Tuolumne.
