I spoke with YNP Wilderness Manager Ed Dunlavey again Thursday afternoon, so I thought I'd echo what I learned back to the groups. He vetted this text, so it should be correct.
The problem: big surge in demand for permits feeding onto the JMT, as discussed above. The biggest concern is the Sunrise drainage reach of the trail. The field survey data seems to be out of date, but this area was at or above carrying capacity in 2010 and has only gotten worse. Lyell Canyon was near capacity in 2010, so its assumed to be over capacity now with the additional demand. Apparently the usual overuse impacts are manifesting with more fire rings and bear incidents. It may not be directly from JMT hikers, but too many hikers lead to new camp spots, and some percentage of hikers will screw up with food storage.
The options: they have historically made changes to entry quotas through administrative action without formal review. They don't seem to be considering any new limits on total entry permits, which means the total number of permits may not change. They are considering changes to the current pass-through quotas out of the valley and/or Glacier Pt, and adding a new exit permit SOBO out of Lyell Canyon.
The proposed solutions: I believe there are 20 total pass-through permits (past LYV to Sunrise/Merced) shared between the two trailheads (HI and GP). One idea is to allocate those 20 permits amongst all the trailheads that feed into the Sunrise reach of trail (HI, GP, Sunrise Lakes, Cathedral, etc) and let them get assigned by lottery. So a regular Sunrise Lakes permit from Tenaya Lake might not allow you to circle back up to TM and beyond on the JMT, only the pass-through permit would allow that. This change would reduce access to the JMT from feeder trails, but allow the same total number of in-park hikers. Presumably, they would camp away from the JMT and reduce concentrated impacts. I recommended they separate the pass-through permits beyond LYV into either Merced or Sunrise destination trails instead of lumping them together as they are now. I don't think there's a problem with the Merced reach, so why affect those hikers? On the other hand, more people might start going from Happy Isles through Vogelsang to get to Donohue, but they would be limited by the exit quota for continuing on SOBO.
The solution for Lyell Canyon is focused on a new exit quota. This option has never been used before in YNP, so they are struggling to visualize the ramifications. Ultimately, this will also affect all thru-hikers no matter where you start in the park if you want to continue SOBO over Donahue Pass. They were considering Red's Meadow as the exit point, but I pointed out that was beyond their jurisdiction, and they've already backed off of that. So it will probably be Donohue Pass if they implement an exit quota. The proposed quota number is under debate. A major consideration is if they coordinate with Inyo and Toiyabe NF to include hikers starting from the Bridgeport Twin Lakes area or other surrounding areas. If they do that, it would reduce the available exit permits starting from within YNP since some of the quota would be taken from hikers starting elsewhere. Or they could increase the quota to accommodate the additional traffic. They are consulting with the NF managers, but I think that level of permit coordination would be more complex than they can handle on short notice. It may come later. Bottom line, an exit quota might push more starting traffic into the surrounding Nat Forests, which might affect permit options for hikes in those areas.
Lastly, the Yosemite Wilderness Plan Update is scheduled to kickoff this spring/summer, which will give them a chance to perform more comprehensive planning with better information, public review, interagency coordination, and more options on the table. So keep your powder dry on the big solutions, and feel free to comment on what I've described here. I will relay it back to Ed.
This is moving quickly, by government standards, so if this topic interests you, please don't delay getting your ideas posted. Please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just trying to help.
