Mt Whitney Zone Forums General Discussion Weather Outlook July 27-29 And Possible Backup Hikes

My son and I along with two of my colleagues are leaving the East Coast today for our planned 2014 Whitney adventure. I made the summit last year, so I have a pretty good feel for what we are getting into. However, we had absolutely perfect weather last year.

Well, based on latest indications, that may not be the case this year. So, I have a couple of questions for folks who are either relatively local to the area or otherwise have experience dealing with weather on the Whitney trail.

1. How much faith should we put in the forecasts for Sunday through Tuesday right now? I'm seeing some reports of up to 1.5 inches of rain during this time frame. If anyone is local and has a better local forecast than what we can easily find online, it would be great to hear.

2. If that forecast for 1.5 inches of rain is real, it seems it could be questionable going very far up the trail at all. I've read stories about flooding and other dangers that don't even take into account possible lightning at higher elevations. Is that an over reaction to the possible conditions? Granted, I've got dry sacks, rain gear, pack covers and everything else needed to stay relatively dry, but I don't have any context or experience around how much additional risk is involved once that trail gets really wet. With my teenage son on his first trip, gauging the additional risk is important.

3. Let's assume for a moment that it does rain a lot and we ultimately decide that this isn't the year for another Whitney attempt. While my son and I will be in the area for a couple of weeks and could take a shot at a walk-in permit once the weather clears, my other two friends must leave Wednesday night. I would hate to have them come all the way out for nothing. So, I would love to hear of ideas within a 2-4 hour drive from Whitney for memorable hiking that is less likely to be impacted by the rain.

Thanks for any information or advice.

White Mountain, another big 14er on a different range just east of Bishop, may be doable.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...SA#.U9JxAdm9LCQ

New Zealand saying:
Nothing ventured, nothing win.

British mountaineering literature:
Experience had taught us to expect nothing of the weather.
Eric Shipton, Land of Tempest page 753

Mt. Dana - http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Dana/forecasts/3979

White Mtn Peak - http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/White-Mountain-Peak/forecasts/4342

Cloud's Rest - http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Clouds-Rest/forecasts/3025

Not sure where you are seeing that 1.5 inches of rain forecast. The NOAA Whitney forecast is for chances of T-storms in the 10-30% range. There are a number of good forecast sites listed on the Whitney Weather page (above on the left).

If there really is rain, the driest high mountain is White Mountain. All the others will be just as wet as Whitney.

Steve, I'm referring to the forecast at this link:

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Whitney/forecasts/4418

I got this from the site here, but maybe I'm reading it wrong in some way. I hope you are right and it is just some showers here and there. Right before I arrived last year, there was a big storm and I heard some horror stories. I think those stories may have me unnecessarily jumpy.

Regardless, I really appreciate the tips on other options. We'll assume we can keep our well crafted Whitney plans, but White sounds intriguing.

Jammer, thanks for the link; I missed it. Sheesh, now it is up to 1.9" of rain!! That's practically off the charts.

Checking the locals who actually live and work nearby... (see Howard Sheckter's report in Mammoth Lakes weather and Dennis Mattinson's 395 Travel and weather), they write of tropical moisture coming in, but only increased thunderstorm activity. The NOAA forecast only predicts T-storms.

I'll be watching Monday to see.....

I do not worry that much about the weather here or the Sierra for that matter. What is, is. It is how you deal with it. If the forecast says chance of thunderstorms after 11 AM...then you better make plans to be near Trail Camp going east before that time.

1. The Weather...It notoriously difficult to predict in the Sierra.

2. If it rains...If it rains, so what! You have the gear. If there is a lightning component...that is another story entirely...see the opening paragraph. The weather coming in on the MMWT, as you know from your last trip, cannot be viewed until your reach Trail Crest. This is the place you make a decision or catch summit fever.

3. Plan B...There are no Plan Bs in the Sierra only Plan As. There is a lot of information available on line...figure out what sounds appealing to you and yours. Getting a walk-in permit for the MMWT should not be all that hard. Any trip that includes Bishop Pass, Big Pine Lakes or the Pioneer Basin and the Mono Recesses is always good.

Now (Monday morning) mountain-forecast.com reports:
Days 0-3 Mount Whitney Weather Summary: A dusting of snow giving way to moderate rain (total 0.7in) heaviest on Wed afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly above freezing (max 39°F on Tue afternoon, min 36°F on Mon morning). Wind will be generally light.

NOAA for Whitney high elevation reports:
Today Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a high near 48. East southeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 52. North northwest wind around 8 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon.

Doug at the store reported heavy rain hit yesterday.

Rough day to be on the mountain.

It was right around this week in 2008 that the flash floods hit that did so much damage at the portal and took out the Whitney Hatchery.

I remember charting the weather every day in July to see what the patterns were... Whitney makes her own weather ;-)

SoCal Girl,

I got rained on four days during that period in 2008 further north but not like the Mt. Whitney area.

The forecast...Rain the night before we went in, period!!! We got rained on all four days. We could see the storms in the south from our high points.