The last unused permits may very well get scooped up by people ready to drive the distance and pick up their permit in the Night Box. The Unused Permits numbers will definitely decline.
Maybe, maybe not. I've mentioned a few times I've never been shut-out from any TH walk-up permit, including WZ. Of course, I'm always solo and many times mid-week, but not having a reserved permit in hand has ever determined whether or not to head up from SoCal.
Perhaps I might be projecting, but how many people would decide to drive 4 hours just because a permit was available? I would think the opposite would be true ie more like my situation, where you have the means, motivation and opportunity. (Can't do the time, don't do the crime.) IOW, I have a few free days, the weather forecast looks good, and I'm feeling strong and healthy. In my experience, that's when I throw my gear in the car and head out regardless.
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Now, with all this discussion about permits, I noted one important aspect, which I'm really curious about: you mentioned night-drop will be available for the parks? Or just the SEKI side of WZ? Because if that's true, Katy bar the door. How many of us have driven up after work, shown up after hours, wasted night 1 sleeping in the car, got a permit the next am (ya know, first in line club), and finally hit the TH before noon? That's yet another reason why the WZ is so awesome, in that with night drop, you could compress a trip by hiking up to LP lake night 1. If this is truly a new option for the parks, yippee!
