Recreation.gov call center told me that my lottery application just wasn't one of the ones chosen ("we only pick some of them").
Inyo told me that they've had a ton of cancellations, and those show up on Recreation.gov right away. But the # of available permits on Recreation.gov for the dates I'm looking at don't seem to have changed over the past few hours, so I'm questioning that.
I think the most likely scenario is that Recreation.gov:
1. Ran the full lottery.
2. Processed all the cancellations for duplicate trips, same leader on multiple trips, etc.
3. Didn't go back to re-run still valid, yet originally unsuccessful, lottery applications to fill the remaining spaces.