Well, good luck. I'm a little happier to know you're not going this year.
I don't plan to ski any area that may be potentially dangerous for a less than experienced backcountry skier (e.g. Mather, Glen), but for 95% of the trail, I should be alright on ski.
You don't have any choice. Mather & Glen? What about getting over Whitney or Forester? Bear Creek if it's open and running? Getting down the south side of Muir below 12,000 can be really bad. The Golden Staircase?? Jeez. You can't avoid avalanche terrain on the JMT. Avalanches do not just happen on the steep passes, though those can be very dangerous. Most all of the southern canyons of the Sierra are swept side to side by avalanches that start 3,000 feet above the canyon floors. Avalanches are very local knowledge specific. There are good general rules, but different regions (pacific, interior ranges, Rockies etc.) all have their own tricks. I would never ski in Utah without an experienced local with me.
Wait, you're not implying you'll carry snowshoes for the steeper terrain? As if that's somehow safer (insert icon of guy banging head on brick wall...)? Maybe I misread 'cause that's not an improvement... .
As for the dead guy in Evolution Lake - he drowned June 13, 2005 - not the time of year anyone should dare to walk on ice. Maybe he slipped off the rocks above the lake, but that's more a thing to worry about at Palisade Lake. Some folks think he may have been out there to get water because he was found with empty bottles on him.
No. He was found with his snow shoes on and had been dead for quite sometime. The ranger had just come on duty for the season and found him. There were no "rocks" or slope to fall from. He was in the upper end of Evolution Lake and was most likely crossing the ice. After about late April, I wouldn't cross any lake ice (though I have, it's just a really bad idea however tempting).
So ok. If you're going to come up to speed over a few years, that's great. But I would really, really encourage you to get better at skiing then take a guided trans-Sierra. Either the High Route with one of the Bishop guide services, or the Yosemite trans-Sierra by yourself or with Yosemite Mountaineering School. The High Route will be as realistic intro to the JMT terrain as you're going to get and the Bishop area guides are all good. You'll learn a lot, absolutely guaranteed.
There's a reason only a handful of people have skied the JMT solo. All of them I know have been incredibly experienced mountaineers. In my semi hard-core skiing days, I was lucky because I skied with a group of really experienced people. We learned from each other and, as important, lived where we skied. We knew the changes in the snow from storms and melt on a day by day basis. We had a great feel for the terrain but all of us have made near-fatal mistakes.
With far more experience than you'll have in two years, I took a "simple" fall near Tuolumne and broke my femur. Had to be medivaced by helicopter. But the good news is I at least had someone with me to go for help.
good points - but you probably know that I won't listen I am bored with 3 season backpacking and always wanted to get out there in winter.
The two are not mutually exclusive: listening to experienced Sierra mountaineers does not stop you from going out in winter. The only point I'm making is to do so safely -- Not putting others at risk who may have to rescue you because you've chosen a trip that has a high probability of being beyond your skill level, even in two years.
If you don't do a couple of trips before hand that require a similar skill-set in that type of terrain, you won't know you're not ready.
Sigh.
George
