jbrooks, sorry to hear you got the TBNT. Most of us seem to. Re the recommendations I was making to go ahead and try for cancellations or walk-ins rather than abandon plans altogether, my two caveats were (1) be flexibile and (2) avoid weekend start days (Friday/Saturday, primarily). Clearly, some folks can only do Whitney over an extended weekend. In that case, I think trying for a Sunday or Monday permit would be the way to go if at all possible.
The odds are in your favor, but it's still a gamble. The House will occassionally win, but not often. You're correct that the strategy has risks - but if you fail in the lottery, it's your only strategy.
I strongly recommend not waiting to walk in to make your efforts. About two weeks out from your planned target date, begin calling the Bishop Inyo NFS office (not the Lone Pine IA Center) twice a day, asking about cancellations to re-reserve. Some courteous people will cancel their permits when they see they will not make the trip, rather than just no-show since the reservation is nob-refundable. This typically happans within a two-week window of their permit date, and peaks within 3-5 days of permit date. Calling twice a day gives you latitude to take advantage of cancellations they may receive at different times of the day. You call at 9:00 a.m. looking for a July 15 permit. No go. Joe Blow calls later in the day and cancels 3 permits for July 15. If you don't call again before the end of the day, someone else will almost certainly get those permits.
Yes, you have to pay a reservation fee this way, rather than getting them free as a walk-in, but if having permits guaranteed is important to you, $15 ain't much. I got two that way last July. I also walked in in August of '09 and picked up a day permit.
