I wish I had the quote on hand as I saw it perhaps a few months ago, was from some member of the Japanese government as I recall, and yes I believe it because it's an easy tactical assessment, a country has millions of gun owners that would resist your invasion, it's an almost unwinnable scenario short of genocide of course.
This article discusses the Australian business as well as the claim about the Japanese. It is pretty clear that the Japanese never considered invading the US, period.